A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE NIGERIA ECONOMY

ABSTRACT

It is said that the population of any country constitute the most vital component of is resource base, as time potentials for development. Population growth can be positive or gainful to any economy if managed well. For instance China is noted to be most populous country in the world but its population has been managed very well and it has helped boost their economy by increasing the level of productivity and providing cheap labour, thus having a positive impact on the economy and making them one of the best economies of the world. But if the population of any country is not well managed it will result to increase in unemployment level, crime rate, poverty and will bring sufferings to many homes. Methodologically, economic, statistical and econometric methods were used and it was observed the unemployment rate have a negative relationship with economic growth. Recommendation made include instituting Family Planning Programmes.Finally, this work help us to understand that population growth is a two track incident in the sense that it can be advantageous or disadvantageous.

  CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

THE BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The consequences of population growth on the economic development of less developed countries are not the same because the condition prevailing in these countries are quite different from those of developed economy. Therefore the body of literature on population growth in Nigeria has always emphasized either the negative or the positive effect.

Therefore in every discussion, it is conventional to start with a definition of terms used in such discussion. However, population can be seen by a demographer as a change in the size of the population. But when this change occurs in such a way that it reduces the size of population, the demographer refers it as a negative growth but when it adds to the size of population he regards it as a positive one. What we get from this concept is that population growth can be positive or negative depending on whether there is an increase or decrease in the size of a given population.Population whether positive or negative is derived from three demographic variables such as birth, death and migration rates

Udabah (1999:62) Threw more light on this by adding that birth and death rates in underdeveloped country are quite different from that of developed countries. Births rate in underdeveloped are generally highly why those of developed countries are low. On the other hand, death rates are higher in underdeveloped nations. The higher rate of population growth is therefore a major characteristic of underdeveloped nations and is partly responsible for the low rates of economic development.

Moreover, the population of any country constitutes the most vital component of its resource base. This aspect is based mostly on its size, growth rate, spatial distribution, demographic structure and quality in terms of level of education, fitness and social welfare. Population statistics are indispensable impute into the planning process in any area. To government issuing programmes for instance in the efforts of government in the developing countries to feed the people and also provide quality services for them are being frustrated by rapid population growth. This growth is attributable on the one hand to improvement in human survival associated with the application of modern medical science to health matters, better sanitation and immunization of children which have caused the death rate to decrease.

On the other hand, so many socio-cultural issues have complimented the growth of population in Nigeria positively (Lee and Miler 1990, Rennne 1995, Ainsword et al 1996).

Consequently, the world population has been increasing and the last two decades have been demographically unprecedented as it rose from 4.2 billion people in 1985 to 6.4 billion in 2006. Much of this occurred in the developing nations as their population grew from 3.7 billion to 5.1 billion as against that of developed nation which grew from 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion over the same period (United Nation 2001 billion).

Nigerian’s population is one of the fastest growing population in the world and Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, ranked the tenths as obtained from two major sources, vizthe 1991 census and the Population Reference Bureau World Population Data Sheet.

Obviously, the population of Nigeria is large which makes it a “giant” relative to the other Africa countries. The large population of Nigeria implies a large market for goods and services as well as large pool of human resources for development. However, the impact of population on development depends not only on the absolute size but also on its quality. The major function responsible for the rapid increase in the population of the country is the relatively high fertility level as portrayed by a total fertility rate of about 6.0 life -birth per woman in the 1990’s.

Having seen from theoretical and empirical view that the population growth is an impediment to the economic growth and development especially under developing countries. It is then important to answer this question, how detrimental is population growth to the economic growth? To answer these we look into the interactions between population growth and any of the economic variable such as, population growth, unemployment, savings ,interest, and inflation etc.So in this research work, our demonstration of the impact of population on economic growth will be based on the study of the relationship between population growth, interest, unemployment and inflation. Now the question to answer becomes how those population growth influences unemployment? Since we are working on the impact of population growth on Nigeria, as whose population according the 2006 census was estimated to be at a growth rate of 3%, our limitation of this study would be on the Nigeria GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or GNI (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT) versus the population growth rate of Nigeria.

Nevertheless, economic growth is the GDP OR GNI divided by the total population of the whole country. This measure the level of output in the economy. This equation implies that if population is rapidly growing, the economic growth will reduce marginally and people income will also decrease. So according to the finding, GDP  can be improved that is GDP per capital by checking the population growth rate through control birth, death rate, migration and some other demographic variables and economic variables.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Fundamentally, growth is an indispensable requisite for the development that is why Nigeria’s  economic growth had continue to dominate the main thrust of government paramount objective more importantly, growth is associated with policies of control population growth because a high population lead to a vicious depletion of a nation’s financial and material resources. According to CBN (1997) the population growth rate of Nigeria is at an average of 2.83% from 1993 to 1997 as compared to developed country like United States whose population rate is 1.00% on the average. This rapid population growth has efficiently induce wide spread poverty. According to Chege (1992), Nigeria become worst than the early post-colonial period. In the 1980’s the agricultural sector declined in productivity by 1.3% while population grew by 3.1% thus creating severe food shortage, a fall in  capital income, a fall in savings and living standard . Because of this type of situation economic growth been severely retarded and dwarfed.

The above presentation points to the critical stance of the economy and therefore makes a clarion call for adequate measure to control the growth rate of Nigeria’s population which is at 2.8%per annum. To check this, we require constructive demographic policy approaches that will seriously enlighten citizens of the eminent socio-economic danger of rapid population growth.

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

1. To find out the relationship between population growth and economic growth.

2. To examine the impact of population growth on economic growth.

3. To proffer appropriate solution/recommendation to authority in charge of managing the economy on how to remedy the situation population growth.

1.4   STATEMENT OF THE HYPOTHESIS

The hypothesis to be used is stated thus:

H0:= The impact of population growth on Nigerian economy is not significant.

H1:= The impact of population growth on Nigerian economy is significant.

H0:= There is no casual relationship between population growth and economic growth.

H1:= There is casual relationship between population and economic growth.

SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY

1. It provides information on population trends and their implication to the policy makers, educators, the media and the concern public servant.

2. To ascertain the truthfulness whether population growth impact negative or positively to the economic development.                                                                   

3. This study will also serve as a reference research work for the society further studies.

1.6    SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This research is macroeconomic in nature and over the trend of population growth rate and economic growth rate in Nigeria from 1980 to 2006 a period of 27 years. The study also focuses on the effects of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria in a bid to analyze the options available to  accelerate economic development, taking into cognisance of the fact that other factors outside the sphere of population are also important in the determination of the face of economic growth.

1.7LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

The utility of this research work is restricted to the exclusive focus on population size and growth.